‘Survivor: Blood vs. Water’ analysis: Playing the odds for likely winners, losers

This “Survivor: Blood vs. Water” analysis piece is a little different than most others that we’ve done, largely because we don’t quite feel like there is that much to really analyze from this past episode. The Aras blindside was telegraphed weeks in advance, so it’s not hard to figure out how it came together save for that everyone was in on the plan except for Tina / Katie and Vytas.

So what we’re going to do today is something that we used to do a long tie ago and try to play the odds for the rest of the houseguests, at least in terms of trying to figure out who is the favorite to go far and possibly with the game. This is a fun time to check in on it a week after the merge, since we really have the sense of how everyone is playing.

No chance of winning

Katie Collins – The simple issue here is that she hasn’t done anything. Even if she makes it to the end of the game, there is almost no way that someone gives her the million bucks. She was helped in the early going by Ciera, and now by her own mother Tina.

Laura Morett – There is no way that Laura gets any real votes at the end, either. It’s hard for redemption island returnees to get a whole lot of support unless they win their way to the end like Ozzy, and the fact that her daughter is having to keep her in line is not a very good sign.

Little chance of winning

Caleb Bankston – We genuinely think that Caleb’s a good guy, and he could be someone that gets a vote or two if he makes it far enough. The difficult thing when it comes to Caleb is that in giving him a million bucks, you’re effectively helping Colton. We can’t see people willing to do that.

Tina Wesson – After trying to threaten jury votes against people on this upcoming episode, we just can’t see her winning again. Could she survive for a long time? Sure, but the game has changed tremendously since she was declared the winner all the way back in season 2.

Aras Baskauskas – This is mostly due to odds. If he somehow manages to win every duel from here out on at Redemption, get back in the game, and then win some more, it would be very hard to keep the title away from him. But the odds of that happening are so tiny that it’s hard to take him seriously.

Decent chance of winning

Monica Culpepper – While you can make the whole “she already has money” argument, Monica’s played a pretty good game in that she’s gotten rid of people who are directly targeting her or going against the group. Did she keep Vytas around? Sure, but Vytas has not once mentioned getting rid of Monica, and Kat had.

Hayden Moss – The “Big Brother” winner is like the mystery ball that was in the house one season. We don’t really know what he’s doing, but we know that he is a good game-player. Somehow, he’s managed to get this far without a single vote against him, and that is with the target of winning another show. That says something.

Big chance of winning

Tyson Apostol – Right now, he has to be a huge favorite to go far and win. He orchestrated getting rid of Aras, he’s a huge challenge competitor (even injured), and he also has a hidden immunity idol. The only challenge that he is left with now is that without Aras gone, we don’t know who else left in the game has a bigger target.

Gervase Peterson – Who would’ve thought that a guy who was celebrating to the point of getting his own niece voted off would later be a favorite to win this game? When you consider that Tyson is going to be targeted a few times in the game, it would not surprise us at all if he was standing after a blindside and collecting  million bucks.

Ciera Eastin – A darkhorse for sure, but someone who has really surprised us the past few weeks with how well she knows the game. The scenes of her putting her mom in line are great, and now that we are past the merge, nobody’s going to get rid of her for being terrible at puzzles, and she’s not a target. So long as she keeps the status quo intact, she has an easy trick to the final five or so coming.

Vytas Baskauskas – With Aras gone, Vytas now has the ability to try to reconnect with some old alliances, get back under the radar, and try to stay put for a little while. We don’t see him being the next person out of this game, and if he manages to get to the end of the game somehow, it’s hard to imagine him not winning the million bucks in the end.

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Photo: CBS