‘Survivor: Millennials vs. Gen X’: What Jay should’ve done with Michaela

Timing. So much of “Survivor” as a game is heavily dependent on it. You know that there are certain people who are inevitably going to get in the way of you winning a million dollars, and the question you have to start asking yourself along the way is rather simple: When is the right time to pull the trigger on the move?

In forgoing our weekly Winners and Losers article (that’ll be back next week), we want to focus instead more on the intricacies behind one move in particular will likely define the majority of the game in the weeks to come: Jay opting to eliminate Michaela with the help of Will over Bret. To date, it’s been heavily criticized by the “Survivor” community, especially since he effectively got rid of someone he could trust over someone he knew could already be lying to him about his job — let alone many other potential things.

If the criticism for the move unwarranted? Yes and no. Here’s what we do know: Taking out Michaela is something that Jay would have to do eventually, and Tony Vlachos during “Survivor: Cagayan” showed that sometimes it is better to make moves a little bit earlier than many would first assume. For example, he made the move on LJ at a time when there were still threats in the game on the other side including Spencer and Tasha; yet, he realized that LJ would do the same thing to him a couple of Tribal Councils from that point, so he needed to strike first.

With Michaela, the situation is somewhat different. She told us last week in an exit interview that she was fine going to the final four with the alliance of Will, Hannah, and Jay, mostly because she thought she would beat them; her mistake was thinking that they wanted the same thing. If Jay realized that Michaela would win at the end, he was right to take her out.

This just comes back to timing. We don’t think going anywhere close to the top four with Michaela, who is a challenge dominator and extremely likable, is smart. We just don’t think getting rid of her right before the merge is, either. Where is she going to go? She’s already shown to be a poor liar and wears her emotions on her sleeve, so if she turns on you, it’ll be easy to anticipate it. You’ve also spent the entirety of the game with her, so you know there are no potential secret allies out there on other beaches. With Chris, Ken, Jessica, and David all out there, you don’t know for certain what Bret and Sunday are going to be interested in doing.

If we were Jay, our move would’ve been to bring Michaela to the merge, mostly to gauge where all the numbers and alliances are. Use your own ability to read other people! Maybe you need her as a number to get some other people on your side. The only counter-argument we can make against this is that you’re afraid that with Michaela around you’ll struggle to bring someone like Taylor in, but where else is he going to go? You make sure that you have the numbers long enough to ensure that you’re in a dominant position for a couple of weeks.

Then, at around maybe final 11, you can make the move on Michaela then if you feel like you’ve got a loyal-enough crew around you. The adversaries on the other side are known as that, and you just have to continue fostering that mentality. Follow the Tony doctrine then and if you’re Jay, leverage your idol and weed out your own alliance slowly over time until you’re confident you can beat the remaining players in it. You don’t need to leave Michaela in for long that she either realizes she has an easier path to the end, or she’s just winning every challenge under the sun.

Maybe this will all work out with Jay come the merge and he’ll find new people to work with. At present, we’re worried that he eliminated a loyal player, alienated another in Hannah, and now has himself in a position where other people come merge-time already know he is ruthless and may not want to join up with him.

What do you think Jay should have done? Let us know in the comments! We’ll be back tomorrow with contestant rankings for all thirteen remaining players. (Photo: CBS.)