CarterMatt Extended: Can ‘NCIS’ really live forever?
The news of Michael Weatherly’s departure from “NCIS” will resonate for weeks to come. If you consider yourself a longtime fan of the CBS procedural, there’s no other way around it. You are looking here at a character who appeared in thirteen seasons of the show, which has been at some points the most-watched series not only in America, but the entire world. That is a shocking prospect to think about; Weatherly could go to a foreign country halfway around the world and be recognized as Tony DiNozzo.
When Weatherly does leave at the end of the season, this will mark the second time in three years that the series has underwent a major cast change. It would be a waste of time to remind you about Cote de Pablo’s dramatic exit early in season 11; everyone remembers, and this remains a point of contention for many fans still. If you’ve been reading across the site over the past 48 hours, then more than likely you have seen the stance we’ve chosen to take about Ziva in relationship to Tony’s exit: She should return, if for no other reason than to help see off someone she worked with for so many years. Whether or not that happens is up to the powers-that-be.
The question that Weatherly’s exit raises is one that many similar long-running series (“Law & Order,” “ER,” “CSI”) have wrestled with in the past, and that is whether or not a show is made by the concept, or by the cast. Is there any one “NCIS” cast member that the series would flounder without? If you were to look at Mark Harmon, then you would obviously say that it is him. He is, after all, the star at the top of the metaphorical poster, and while his popularity online may not be on the same level as many top-level stars of other shows, the sense you get is that he remains intensely popular with casual viewers, those who don’t always venture to social media to profess their support.
It would be a shame for “NCIS” to lose Harmon; yet, at the same time, some could see it as an asset. It’s a chance to reinvigorate the show, bring in a new leader, and also lose off the books one of the highest-paid actors in television. Maybe some would argue that losing him would be a bridge too far, but in reality, it’s hard to see it that way when so many offshoots have shown that Gibbs is not the reason the “NCIS” brand is so strong.
Are there any actors who are absolutely critical to the show’s longevity?
If you look across the board, the answer is probably that everyone can be replaced in some shape or form. It’s part of the strength of the show for what its concept is set up to be, and that is a weekly procedural about solving crimes in the Navy. If this was a “Monk” style show where it was about one detective, it’d be different. However, at the same time these are characters who made the show a hit in the first place, and without them, it’d be long gone. We just find that it is easier to fill holes than it is to start from scratch, so “NCIS” could be fine to lose more people time to time at least from a ratings perspective. We cannot speak for quality.
The characters at the moment that may be the hardest to imagine the show without are the ones who bring it some of its lightness: McGee (Sean Murray) and Abby (Pauley Perrette). These are some of the people you do not realize you miss so much until they are gone, and it is hard to replace their energy or their rapport. Yet, if the need called for it, CBS probably could. This philosophy more than likely has to leave most actors in a bittersweet position; if you choose to leave a show (as Michael is deciding to do), you want to see it succeed without you. However, at the same exact time you also have to be well aware of the notion that a show still can prosper. That, even unconsciously, has to be a humbling experience. (We have no doubt that Michael wishes all of the cast members well, just as we assume the ratings will at least be reasonably consistent moving into season 14. “Grey’s Anatomy” is doing fine without Derek.)
How long can “NCIS” last?
If the show really does ever replace Harmon and continue to cycle in new cast members past and present, it is easy to see many more years. What about a season 20? It’s possible. It may sound a little nutty, but perceive it in this way: The days of the great procedural are dying. If you look at the landscape, maybe “Scorpion” is the only surefire hit that CBS has launched in this genre for the past several years. “Blue Bloods,” “Hawaii Five-0,” “Criminal Minds,” and other shows are starting to see their numbers wane. “NCIS,” despite its age, remains the most-watch show for the network and one of its leaders among dramas in the 18-49 demographic.
If you were CBS and caring more about business than anything else, would you want to end a show that you not only helped to produce, but was continuing to get such high ratings? It’s hard to envision a scenario where you’d want to when newer shows are not sustaining. This could be a series that remains so popular thanks to international syndication that it could last so long as the producers continue to want to make it. Maybe eventually it won’t be #1 in viewers and be put on a different night, but it is at present doing a decent job of retention on Tuesday nights. Following Cote’s departure we did see a drop in ratings (there was a 15% decline when you look at the average from season 10 to season 11 in the demo), but to date season 13 is down less than 10% from season 12. That is a pretty standard decline for any TV show in the age of the DVR, and is not a cause for concern
Given that “NCIS” is already looking at potential new cast members for season 14, it has drawn its line in the sand: It is here to stay. The question mostly remains whether or not there will be any familiar faces aboard on a regular basis by the time it finally drives its metaphorical ship into the sunset.
CarterMatt Extended is a feature, comprising of in-depth articles on various TV topics posted every Wednesday night. If you want to sign up for news sent to you every week, you can do so on our Newsletter page.
Karen Padecky
January 11, 2016 @ 1:25 am
You are absolutely wrong that NCIS could survive without Mark Harmon. One of the reasons the other 2 are doing well is because of Mark Harmon. .why you ask. .because many Harmon supporters are loyal to him and want to support anything slightly associated with him..Now I’m not saying all of their viewers but alot. NCIS the original is not just a crime solving show it has humor and relationships. .and everyone wants to please Gibbs..He’s like the father figure and hunk too..No..no way no how could NCIS survive without Mark Harmon.
sadtonyfan
January 9, 2016 @ 5:09 am
The idea that McGee is so essential is just a PR campaign. Sorry – Gibbs and McGee are as dull as dishwater. Gibbs and DiNozzo (before Harmon decided he wouldn’t do scenes with Weatherly) were golden. After Weatherly leaves I’m outta here too. I’ve enjoyed the show but Tony is the heart of it for me no matter how hard the current powers that be try to pretend Harmon’s Gibbs is the only character who is important. I can tell you for sure that Harmon’s Gibbs won’t bring me back once Tony is gone. Miscalculation. No doubt already figured in by the number crunchers. I’m an acceptable loss. Ciao.
LSilvaxx
January 9, 2016 @ 1:28 pm
Here you are again – dissing MH and defaming him again! Show me the link to a reliable source that confirms that MH decided not to do any scenes with MW anymore! Prove that. Because I have heard something completely different.
Karen Padecky
January 11, 2016 @ 1:54 am
I agree with you..It’s not in Mark Harmon’s nature to do something like that..he’s a professional and a good guy.
Karen Padecky
January 11, 2016 @ 1:51 am
Where did you get the information that Harmon wouldn’t do scenes with.Weatherly? ??? You must be watching fanfiction..because Mark Harmon isn’t like that..he’s a professional. .and everyone on the cast has only had praise and kind words about him.. I don’t know what your game is but no sane person would believe this!
Lee
January 8, 2016 @ 9:47 pm
Interesting essay.
There has always been something different about NCIS; about the way the cast interacts and feels like a real group of co-workers with their idocyncracies, irreverance and yet professionalism when it is called for. The tone of that changed, and not for the better for many of us, when the emphasis changed to the romantic tease between Tony and Ziva. Between that, and the actions assigned to Ziva at the end of season 6 the show drove away many of the original fans, yet this was a time when the re-runs in syndication were bringing in a host of new fans.
If the main NCIS facebook page is an indicator of the wishes of the fans – as some would have us believe – then I truly believe that the posts over the summer hiatus indicate that the show would not survive without Harmon. The franchise works with the other shows, but neither have approached the popularity of the original. There is a certain irony that the leading man who considers himself eminently replaceable is the one that the fans don’t ever want replaced.
I do think the show is going to limp badly in the absence of Weatherly’s DiNozzo, he made a fantastic partnership with Harmon’s Gibbs and NCIS without him will be like James T Kirk without Spock, or Jean-Luc Picard without Will Riker – almost unthinkable.
Whilst McGee is a popular character, his interaction with Gibbs in recent seasons has nothing of the spark that Gibbs & DiNozzo have. Abby, Ducky and Palmer are well-loved characters, as well as being infuriating ones, so they might be enough to cover for DiNozzo. The hatred for Bishop from the Ziva fans currently masks the true feeling for her from the general viewer, when the last of the Tiva fans quit watching because there is no longer any chance of their desires being filled by NCIS, we might get a better temperature on how many fans genuinely dislike her, as oppose to those who are happy to have her on the team.
The real test will be with whoever they bring in new to the team. Personally I think this show caught lightning in a bottle with the original cast, if by some miracle they can do that again it might have wheels for a few seasons yet. Otherwise I think season 14 might well be the last, with fans deserting like rats off a sinking ship, which would be a sad end to a once fantastic show.
Karen Padecky
January 11, 2016 @ 1:46 am
I disagree about it sinking but agree that the show would not survive without Harmon..They will bring in 2 new probie and we’ll laugh as Gibbs slaps them in the back of the head into shape.. So as long as Mark stays and CBS supports them NCIS will go on……..
conor1051
January 13, 2016 @ 6:21 pm
A few things, I agree that Tony is more important to the show then McGee, in terms of relationships and how their stories are written. I have always thought that when they needed a ratings spike (my guess was year 17), they would put Gibbs as Director, and then have McGee and Tony each have a team so the stories could bounce back and forth, (See Waterston in L+O). Also, I think the writers are going to ignore the Tiva shippers, because in Gibbs’s mind it should have been Kate and Tony (I forget the episode that was in though). I bring that up, because that is my guess to what they would have liked to write, also while I never minded the Tiva story line, it really only started out being an inversion of the Tony/Kate sparks. With that being said, I still can’t stand Wickersham. While Wickersham does not need to be an over the top character, like Ziva, she needs to have a bigger personality then she does now. In my view, they really have built her character as a Pachi or Cassidy, not really as an integral part of the team. Finally I think you should upgrade to Season 14 is definitely the last season, I think the Tony plots are all that’s worth watching at this point, I think Gibbs plots have gone about as far as they can, and when the plot revolves around the rest of the cast, it has become underwhelming recently (especially Abby).
LSilvaxx
January 7, 2016 @ 4:30 pm
I had no problems when de Pablo finally left. If anyhing, I fell in love with the show even more after she left. All her dramas have been boring me, the forced “Tiva” stories were forced and unnatural to me. Ziva has always been a selfish character to me and she never failed to prove that again and again. Yet, while I disliked the character, I adored de Pablo. But the way she left the show and behaved since now made me dislike her even more than I could have ever disliked her character. I don’t hate her – I can’t hate someone I don’t know – but I truly dislike her and wouldn’t want for her to come back for Michael Weatherly’s farewell. He deserves better, Tony deserves better, the show, the cast and crew deserves better. That’s just my opinion tho.
Back to the point: I admit that I’m not a huge fan of Mark Harmon, and Gibbs is definitely not my favorite character on the show but if he would leave and TPTB would decide to keep the show going without him, the show wouldn’t be NCIS anymore. Gibbs is ultimately the main character and Harmon is the glue that holds the show together – on Screen and on set. From what his cast mates have shared over the course of the years, it seems that Harmon has saved the show from losing the cast and characters since early on. It seems it’s Harmon who makes sure everyone is happy. So I doubt there is a way the show could be as good without him as it used to be.
And Harmon isn’t the one who is fooling his fans by giving interviews and statements that he will be back and then announce he won’t be back. de Pablo has exactly done that and Weatherly sadly did the same (the French interview is proof enough). I can’t forgive both of them for fooling me and other fans. But even though Weatherly has a Habit of changing his statements constantly to either please HIS fans or the nuts that call themselves fans of de Pablo, it doesn’t hurt as much as de Pablo’s silly games.
In the end, NCIS without Harmon/Gibbs won’t work. Neither on nor off Screen. That’s just my opinion of course.
Loraine Mercury
January 7, 2016 @ 10:19 am
NCIS could definitely NOT survive without Mark Harmon as Gibbs. He is the Natural Leader & relies on Experience as well as Instinct – not reliant upon ‘Gadgets & Gizmos’. He knows that they have their place in modern Crime Investigations, but leaves that to the so-called ‘Experts’