‘Survivor: Cagayan’ preview: Final predictions before season premiere

Cagayan -We’ve analyzed and debated most of the “Survivor: Cagayan” cast for the past few weeks, but now, we’ve come to where the rubber meets the road: It’s time to predict where the entirety of the contestants are going to fall this season.

We’ve been predicting “Survivor” seasons on CarterMatt since “South Pacific,” and of those, at least we got Kim Spradlin on “Survivor: One World” correct. Most of our picks have at least made the merge, and the only one that we’d consider a serious misfire was Mikayla to win “South Pacific.” For those curious, we picked Aras to win “Blood vs. Water,” and he was the first member of the jury.

Now, let’s get to this! This list is completely spoiler-free, and we’re going mostly based on what we’ve seen from the castaways in their videos, during the TVGN special previewing the season, and from their bios on CBS.com. There’s a lot to consider here, in between physical strength, intelligence, work ethic, strategy, social game, and the sheer willpower to withstand the elements.

18. Morgan McLeod (Beauty) – There are only two ways we see Morgan. Either she is sitting at the end with zero votes, or she goes almost right away. We’re banking on the former, since we don’t see her bringing anything to the table.

17. Kass McQuillen (Brains) – We actually like Kass a lot, and she would probably do well if this season had larger tribes. It’s just not looking good for her with a three-tribe format that leaves all players exposed.

16. Brice Johnston (Beauty) – Great personality, but every season there’s a contestant that goes home far too soon. This year, it will most likely be Brice.

15. Garrett Adelstein (Brains) – There is no reason for Garrett to go home so soon, but we think that his ego is such that the Brains will get very tired of him.

Tribal swap time!

14. Lindsey Ogle (Brawn) – We don’t see her meshing well with most of the other members of her tribe, and this will likely be an RC sort of situation where she is pecked off the moment that they have a chance to vote for her.

13. Cliff Robinson (Brawn) – Uncle Cliffy had a nice little run here in the game for a celebrity, but let’s be honest: Who really wants to sleep in a shelter with him taking up so much space?

The merge

12. Jeremiah Wood (Beauty) – The moment the merge happens, we predict that the men are typically in trouble. Since we see Jeremiah being at least a solid threat and him also having a close tie to one other player in Jefra, he is easy pickings at this point.

11. Tony Vlachos (Brawn) – Very imposing guy physically, and also someone who is probably trying to mastermind everything more than he really should. It will be pretty easy for some of the other players to pick up on it at this point.

10. David Samson (Brain) – We see an alliance of sorts brewing this season between Tasha, Spencer, Woo, and Trish, with them each bringing something different to the table and picking off some players. This is what happens here.

9. Jefra Bland (Beauty) – She is probably not going to be someone who makes a lot of allies after Jeremiah leaves, and she could actually be perceived as a threat thanks to her knowledge of the outdoors.

8. Alexis Maxwell (Beauty) – Get ready for a cavalcade of beauties at this point, given that we really don’t see many of them lasting for a long period of time. We do think that Alexis will surprise many, though, almost like a Ciera or a Parvati did when they came on the scene.

7. LJ McKanas (Beauty) – We picture him almost as the Malcolm or the Hayden of the season: The All-American guy that almost everyone likes, and will make it pretty far thanks to some well-timed immunity wins.

6. Sarah Lacina (Brawn) – A good player who we feel like was probably aligned with a couple of people ahead of her here, but was blindsided at this point.

5. “Woo” Hwang (Brawn) – Speaking of blindsides, this will be another one. Remember when we said earlier that a Woo / Trish / Spencer / Tasha alliance was going to dominate most of the post-merge? This is where things start to fall apart, since Woo is likable and a threat to win at the end.

4. J’Tia Taylor (Brains) – Now, a little show of unity. Tasha wins immunity at the final four, and the one outsider from the alliance leaves, who Spencer was hoping to take to the end instead of Tasha had he won immunity.

3. Spencer Bledsoe (Brains) – Way too arrogant to win this game. He’ll probably make a lot of moves, but not enough to actually get the respect of the jury. He is the token juror with no votes, but he’ll be asked back for another season.

2. Trish Hegarty (Brawn) – Really doesn’t do that much in the game, but some of the Brawn tribe votes for her because they like her better.

1. Tasha Fox (Brains) – There you have it: Tasha is our pick for the winner of this season. She reminds us a little of a more athletic Cirie Fields in that she has long loved the game, and wanted to shake up her life for this experience. We don’t think she’ll wrestle much with making moves with her primary ally (at least from her point of view) Spencer, and she’ll be perceptive enough to know that nobody will vote for the guy at the end. There may be some controversy in the endgame thanks to Spencer fans, but she’ll be a fairly respected winner of the season.

Who do you think will win “Survivor: Cagayan”? Share below, and head over here if you want to sign up for our CarterMatt Newsletter for more updates.

Photo: CBS

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