Ratings debate: Will ‘Beauty and the Beast’ be the next ‘Secret Circle’?

When it comes to the complicated business of television ratings, it’s not only about performance. It’s also about expectations, and whether or not you are getting the numbers that the network expects in a given timeslot. One great example of this last year came via “The Secret Circle,” a show drawing decent numbers for The CW that was nonetheless canceled. Why? It was airing after “The Vampire Diaries,” and the general expectation was that the ratings would be higher.

This example is what we are going to be looking at primarily in our ratings debate for “Beauty and the Beast,” which is, along with “The Carrie Diaries,” one of the two shows primarily on the bubble for the fall season. There are reasons to keep it, but there are also reasons to send it packing.

Most recent performance – 0.6 in the 18-49 demographic, 1.72 million viewers for the episode airing on March 21

Why it should go – If you look at the majority of its season, Kristin Kreuk and company have been losing around half of their “Vampire Diaries” lead-in in the demo. That’s not good news, and for any network that would put a show in jeopardy. Are the numbers that it has inflated as is by the most-popular show airing before it? You have to remember that if “Beauty and the Beast” is renewed, The CW also has “The Originals” as a possible new show and it could take this timeslot to establish a more dominant Thurs night. This show may have to be on the move.

The other problem here is that so much of The CW’s publicity is built based off of buzz, and there is not much out there at all for this show. What’s the reason for that? Maybe some of it is in the advertising money that was spent to promote “The Carrie Diaries” instead.

Why it should stay – If we were to go based strictly on numbers, “Beauty and the Beast” drew nearly twice as many eyeballs as the last new “Carrie Diaries.” It also performs better in the demo consistently than “90210,” “Cult,” and “Nikita.” It’s in the middle of the pack in regards to the network’s programming, and the quality of the show has improved throughout the season. If there was a little bit more of an effort put into letting people know this show exists, it could fare well.

The verdict – This is by far the trickiest of The CW’s shows to call right now, and we’re giving it around a 40% chance to survival. Really it’s going to come down to how confident the network feels in their new pilots; if they have a couple of shows that they feel like could be the next “Arrow,” they will probably clean house and cancel this show, “Carrie Diaries,” and of course “Cult” while “90210” is coming to an end. However, they could keep this show as more of an insurance policy, knowing that it can draw OK numbers and is worthwhile in case some new shows flop.

One thing we can say? There is about a 95% chance that “Beauty and the Beast” will not air after “The Vampire Diaries” next year.

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What do you think is going to happen to this show? We want to hear your thoughts in the poll below, and you can read some more of our ratings debate pieces by heading on over to the link here.

Photo: The CW