The Orville season 3 renewal odds: The current state of the show

Orville

What are the chances at the moment of The Orville season 3 on Fox? Even though we’re only four episodes into the season, we’re starting to get a reasonably good idea as to what the future could hold for the Seth MacFarlane series.

Related The Orville video! – Check out more of our discussion on Alara’s exit at the bottom of this article! Meanwhile, be sure to subscribe to CarterMatt on YouTube for some other updates and view our full series playlist.

Unfortunately, we think that the renewal here for the show is going to come down to the wire for a few different reasons.

The merits of renewing the show – The Orville is a unique show for Fox, and really for all of network TV. It’s a series that is trying to tell basically a movie a week with high production value and a mixture of humor and drama. It’s a throwback to classic Star Trek series and does actually try to hand down good messages every now and then. Bringing it back gives Fox another chance to continue to build this audience. Also, we know that the show already was granted a rather hefty tax credit for a third season, which would help to offset some of the hefty production costs that are associated with the show as a whole.

The reasons to cancel – The first one is really something that is out of the show’s control altogether — Fox is cutting back on programming in the 2019-20 season thanks to WWE SmackDown moving to the network and airing Friday nights. There will have to be more cancellations because of that, and Thursday Night Football will still be there. Then, there’s also the ratings themselves — the last three episodes of season 2 have posted lower ratings than any episode in season 1, and while we understand it doesn’t have a great lead-in and a lot of people watch after the fact, this doesn’t change the fact that Fox values live ratings.

Our final verdict

This is all about whether or not Fox just likes the show enough to justify another season. We give it a better chance of sticking around than Lethal Weapon / The Gifted, and with Gotham ending, maybe Fox will decide that they don’t need to lose four hour-long series all in one season. Yet, the performance of The Masked Singer and The Passage (at least through one episode) may convince the network that they have some solid entries elsewhere. We’d like to see a season 3, but it’s going to take consistent viewership the rest of the way.

Related – Check out a preview for what’s coming up on The Orville next!

What do you think are the chances of an Orville season 3 renewal at Fox? Be sure to share in the comments below! (Photo: Fox.)

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