Big Brother Canada 5 prediction: Why Bruno Ielo will win

Sometimes when we make Big Brother Canada season predictions, we do tend to spend a good bit of time sitting around, trying to think about who’s in the best spot going into the game, and who has the right balance of skills. We’ve always said that it’s best to appear imperfect to other players — if they think you’re unstoppable, they’ll get rid of you.

Look back at some of the show’s winners so far — Jillian lacked at times a good social game and bedside manner, Jon Pardy didn’t know the game at all for much of it, Sarah Hanlon was inconsistent in challenges and benefited from twists, and Phil and Nick were temperamental and often out of the loop. Every one of these winners were aided by a deficiency in some way.

Going into this season, you do have to think like that to a certain extent when making predictions. You want to choose someone who you know is a good player (especially with returning players), but not someone necessarily perceived by others as an amazing player. Therefore, we came to this conclusion the moment that we learned the full cast for Big Brother Canada 5: Bruno Ielo will win this season.

Let’s go ahead and get it out of the way that none of the newbie players are winning this season. The format’s inherently unfair and it feels impossible for them to be able to overcome something that is constantly going to weigh them down in terms of their experience. Also, Canada votes will almost certainly benefit returning players.

Now, let’s explain the rest of the process. There are some returning players whose flaws are a bit too mighty — Dallas has yet to show any strategic clout, Gary’s placement in season 1 was a tad circumstantial with him returning as a juror, and while Cassandra is a personal favorite and we picked her to win last time, we’re not sure she’s focusing on the right thing by acting like she’s a changed woman just one year after she played. Sindy can’t stay out of her own way. You can say more or less the same think about Ika.

Like many other people, we do think that three people are the best-positioned to win this game in Neda, Kevin, and then Bruno. For Neda, she’s just way too big of a target. She runs the risk of getting cut almost right away since she’s by far the best player in the group and it’s obvious. We understand saying yes to another season, but this particular pool doesn’t benefit her at all. Kevin’s a very good player, but he looks and acts too much like a good player. He’ll win too many competitions and be targeted as soon as he’s available to be kicked out. (Kevin told us pre-game he wants to win more comps this time around.)

This leaves us with Bruno, a guy who is capable of winning comps, he’s extremely social, and he adapts well to any situation in the game. He’s smart, and he’s a gamer — just not as obvious of one as Kevin in terms of how much he games and in what venue. As we mentioned, he has some flaws that could help him in terms of perception — he wasn’t great with some of the women his first season, and he’s not as popular with Canada as many of the other returning players. He can play that up (saying that people like Neda and Gary are more popular), get with some newbies, and not be perceived as an immediate threat.

Would Bruno have won season 3 were it not for the Have-Not room twist? It’s hard to say, but of the field, we’re willing to argue that he had one of the best chances out of anyone. He’s one of the most underrated players in Big Brother Canada history in terms of positioning and making sure he’s important to other people.

Remember, check out all of our pregame interviews

As for who among the newbies has the best shot, we do think that someone like Dillon could have a little of a Godfrey or a Paul Abrahamian in him where he is far savvier at the game than he may appear, and he can use that to get really far — maybe he wins in the right situation. (He’s like Austin minus the insecurities that doomed his game.) Jackie has the potential to be like an Ashleigh or a Kelsey, someone who makes it really far but may have a difficult time at the end.

We should note that we almost picked Bruno to win season 3 before settling on Willow, who also made it reasonably far. We picked seasons 1 and 2 correctly, and we’ve yet to have a winner pick go pre-jury. In saying this, maybe we’ve just jinxed Bruno completely.

Who are you picking to win Big Brother Canada 5? Let us know in the comments! (Photo: Global.)