Ratings Bubble Report: Is ‘NCIS: Los Angeles’ staring at a series finale?
There is no doubt that CBS is probably grateful beyond words at the moment for the “NCIS” franchise, given the ratings, the revenue, and the recognition that the shows have given them over the years. There are currently three shows that are on the air right now (all stemming from “JAG”), and we know that sooner or later, one will be the first to go much like it was for the “CSI” franchise so many years ago.
Could this first show be “NCIS: Los Angeles“? There is currently some evidence that would suggest so, but as we’re about to lay out in the latest edition of our Ratings Bubble Report series, there may not be that much of a reason to worry about it in the near future.
The good news – At the moment, there are many bigger fish to fry at the moment on CBS. “CSI: Cyber,” “Elementary,” “Code Black,” “Hawaii Five-0,” and “The Amazing Race” are all hour-long shows we’re confident are in more jeopardy than this one at the moment. “Blue Bloods” and “The Good Wife” are probably right around its level. It’s a show that is a big syndication player and also one that is competitive despite being up against similar crime shows for much of the season. You have to remember that for much of the year “NCIS: Los Angeles” has been airing against both “Castle” and “Blindspot” and has been #2 for most of it. Its ratings have also improved since the two went off the air, and the 1.6 it drew Monday was its best performance since last April.
The bad news – We like to look at year-to-year declines often in this series to project the future, and that’s not great news for “NCIS: LA.” So far season 7 is down over 18% from season 6, and that is without getting to the spring months that can be somewhat troublesome. Also, you have to remember that this is the point in a series’ run where contract negotiations often happen and things get much more expensive. There will likely come a point in here where the network determines that making the show may not be worth the price tag if the ratings continue to be what they are.
Renewal odds – High. Even with rising costs and lower numbers, we just don’t see the “NCIS” franchise losing a member this season. Can we envision a scenario in which this show is moved to Fridays next year, and will be in more trouble then? Sure, but we’d keep this show around over some others that are not doing anything to improve the network’s performance in troublesome timeslots.
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Michael Goldman
January 12, 2016 @ 4:55 am
I don’t know what the person underneath me wrote. It’s very confusing. Let’s get to the facts. Despite its ratings being down. NCIS:LA has better ratings than Blue Bloods(which CBS will probably renew) Hawaii Five O(which CBS may renew) The Good Wife(who knows) and lots of other CBS shows. CBS has plenty of other shows that they need to make decisions about before considering cancellation of LA. LA is losing soundly to Blindspot, but so is CASTLE. Who would have predicted both those networks would be having problems with this timeslot after last season? LA is not getting any help from Scorpion, and a bunch of us believe that Limitless and LA will switch timeslots next season. If CBS cancels H5O, LA could move there. I think CBS would be making a BIG mistake cancelling LA. The more intelligent CBS fans believe that LA will be back, but I felt that someone with some intelligence (that would be me)should answer this article.
ayuilaa
January 8, 2016 @ 7:27 pm
I’ve lost interest myself and I was a huge fan. Talia being brought back and the same storylines for 7 straight seasons has grown tired. I no longer care what is in the box or Callen first name. Oh and NCIS I quit when Ziva left. I’ve watched some season 12 on Netflix but I was right to give up on the show when Cote left. It’s not for me without Tiva.