‘Survivor Cambodia: Second Chance’ rankings: The merge is a hot mess
The biggest merge in “Survivor” history (at 13) is happening on Wednesday night’s new episode of “Survivor Cambodia: Second Chance,” and it’s going to be complete chaos. As a matter of fact, it’s such chaos that we have a really hard time ranking these people. What do you go on? Obviously strategy and gameplay are important, but so is making sure you are not the biggest threat, and having some of the flexibility that you can go with the flow depending on what happens.
We’ve put a ton of thought into this, and we’re also weight a variety of things including the odds of a given player to get far, and the odds that they could win in the final three / two.
13. Kelly Wiglesworth – We don’t seriously think Kelly will be the merge boot. However, we do think that her chances of making it to the end are low. She may be beatable there, but she’s too much of a challenge threat to get there, and she also has very few obvious allies at this point.
12. Andrew Savage – Savage isn’t entering the merge, at least from our vantage point, in a great spot. Joe and Jeremy have forged other alliances without him around, Abi-Maria flipped on him, and Woo is gone. Other than Wiglesworth and Tasha, we don’t know if there is anyone out there that interested in being loyal to him, and he’s too big of a presence to go under the radar.
11. Kass McQuillen – Had Kass voted out Spencer, we think she’s have a better chance of staying safe after the merge. However, she is clearly trying to play to win more so than being anyone else’s puppet. She may be making more of a case for herself, but we can see a scenario that the majority of the tribe just decides to take the element of chaos out of the equation … even with the allies she does have.
10. Spencer Bledsoe – Let’s look at Spencer’s allies: Ciera, Kass, and Abi-Maria from the latest tribe swap. Kass has already labeled him a rival, Abi flips on a weekly basis, and Ciera will think of herself first. Maybe Jeremy, Stephen, and Kimmi may still want him as a number, but we don’t think anyone seems the young lad as supremely valuable to their game at this point.
9. Abi-Maria Gomes – The odds of Abi making it far this season are high. However, the odds of her winning at the very end are extremely low. This is why she’ll probably be ranked pretty low the remainder of the time we’re doing these rankings.
8. Stephen Fishbach – We claimed pre-game that Stephen would be the merge boot, and there’s still a good chance that something like this could happen. He’s a major strategic threat at this point in the game, and while Jeremy has claimed that he’ll be his JT, we don’t think he is that beholden to that. Savage may still want him out, as could that five-person Ta Keo alliance if they stay together and Joe learns about his move against him.
7. Keith Nale – This is similar to Abi, other than that we could see a distance chance of Keith winning at the end if he’s there with a combination of Abi and Wiglesworth, or he’s there with someone who has made the jury extremely bitter. Keith is at least likable and he has an alliance.
6. Joe Anglim – Joe has done almost everything he can at this point to keep him from being an easy merge target, putting himself into an alliance that may need him to stick around and not creating many enemies. We’re not sure Stephen has the numbers to get him out (for now), and people like Jeremy want to use him as a shield. If he makes it far enough, he could just win his way to the end.
5. Kimmi Kappenberg – We’re not sure what the odds are of someone like Kimmi winning at the end of the game, but she has shown some strategic clout with Monica and should be able to beat Keith, Kelly, or Abi-Maria if she lasts that far. Also, she’s well-protected at the moment.
4. Ciera Eastin – Right now, Ciera seems primed to make the final six given that there’s no reason for anyone to target her over anyone else. We’re just not sure if she has the edit beyond this past episode of someone who wins the entire game.
3. Jeremy Collins – Jeremy has done an even better job than Joe has with what he has been given. He’s got Stephen and Kimmi on one side, Joe and Savage on the other, and he seems to at least get along with everyone who started the game on Bayon. He’s also got that immunity idol and could in theory win immunities (even if he doesn’t have the track record you would think he should).
2. Kelley Wentworth – Kelley has played an awesome game so far. She is in that Ta Keo five-person alliance that was formed after the first tribe swap, and she’s got that idol. The only thing hurting her here is if the original Bayon decides eventually that it is easiest to just eradicate every potential threat from the original Ta Keo.
1. Tasha Fox – Why is Tasha #1? There are a variety of reasons. She’s battled the most adversity, and has at this point probably the most options. She can join the alpha-male alliance of the original Bayon if she wants, or she could probably join up with Abi-Maria and her former “Cagayan” players Spencer and Kass. She’s a great challenge performer and could win her way to the end in the right situation. Tasha should be smiling bright right now.
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