In our “American Idol” rankings article yesterday, we listed both Lazaro Arbos and Burnell Taylor as the two least-likely people to win this season, and we’re certainly standing by that. At this very moment, we see there being a less than 1% chance that a man wins this season. If one of them does, we’re pretty surely that Nigel Lythgoe will run on stage, rip his shirt off like The Hulk, and then rip the microphone stand in half. It’s not happening.
However, is there a chance that either one of them breaks into the top 5? This is what we have been wondering for a while, since we know the thought of this alone may cause one of the judges to have a coronary. But there has never been a season of the show were the top 5 were all of one gender, and even with a save being used on one of the ladies (which seems pretty likely at this point), we still have a hard time believing that it will happen.
First of all, we can probably go ahead and write off Lazaro Arbos as the guy likely to make this happen. He’s already used up most of his sympathy, and he has yet to really give a performance in the live shows that really brings to mind the emotional punch that he had in the audition. This leaves Burnell as the only saving grace for the men this season, and we’re starting to think that the best thing for him could be Lazaro going home. Why? As the only man standing, he would be carrying with him a serious underdog status that has helped other contestants with bottom three experience (Haley Reinhart, Hollie Cavanagh) go far. Everyone wants to see a story about a guy who has to work really hard and overcome adversity, and this story could be more compelling than singers who constantly receive rave reviews and are never in jeopardy.
With this being said, we still think we’re looking at an all-female final two, but with the right songs and right attitude, Burnell could find himself angling for a third or fourth-place finish a la Hollie or Haley if he starts just being loose and having fun on the show.
What do you think the odds are of a guy making it deep this season, or do you think we are very much looking at two weeks in a row of male eliminations? If you want to check out those aforementioned rankings, you can do so over here.