Tuesday Ratings: On the slide of ‘NCIS’ and the strength of ‘This Is Us’
Remember when “NCIS” was one of the most-dominant shows on the air? Well, in terms of total viewers it’s still incredible. This is a show that routinely averages well over 14 million viewers, and it’s been labeled TV’s most-watched series for a reason. (It’s also globally one of the biggest shows on the air.)
However, the picture in the 18-49 demographic is very different. If you think back to season 10, the show was averaging an incredible 3.3 rating in the demo that is better than any drama currently airing on network TV, even more so than the current season of “Empire” on Fox. Now, the show’s only averaging a 1.8 rating. The show’s lost about five million from its average viewer total, or right around 30%. However, the demo drop is far more substantial.
What gives there? You can specifically attribute it to a couple of different things: Cast departures (losing Michael Weatherly and Cote de Pablo hasn’t helped the show’s identity, even if we do like some of the new season 14 players) and the rise of streaming / other viewing options. Young viewers are flocking to services like Netflix and Hulu more than older ones, which is why you’re seeing shows like “Blue Bloods” continue to have strong retention. They never had many younger viewers, so it’s not feeling the erosion nearly as much.
The reason that we write about this topic now is because “NCIS” posted last night its lowest rating we can remember of a 1.6 in the demo. It’s not in ANY danger of cancellation (CBS would frankly be stupid to cancel it right now), and it’s renewed already for a 15th season. Beyond that, though, you do have to wonder how long they want to keep the machine running — do you want it to end on a high note, or are you okay seeing it decline into a shell of its former self?
The one other ratings highlight we want to focus on in this article is the continued strength, especially with young people, of “This Is Us.” Last night’s heartwrenching episode drew a 2.5, an improvement from the prior episode and only slightly down from the 2.6 average. The reason that this show, at least through one season, is showing such retention is because it makes viewers feel something, and it capitalizes on what live television is all about: Bringing people together. This is not a show you can stream and have that same experience with, which is why it, unlike “NCIS,” may be able to have a more consistent run in the weeks to come.
What’s your take on the decline of “NCIS” and the steady hand of “This Is Us”? Share in the comments, and be sure to click here to read our “NCIS” review from last night. (Photo: CBS.)
Anna
February 23, 2017 @ 1:12 am
The truth is, if you look at the demo of NCIS, it went down the week after Cote left and it’s never recovered to the highs it had in season 10! People will say it had nothing to do with the departure of Ziva but I beg to differ. I find it amusing that people have argued in the past that the ratings went down, not because of Ziva but because of streaming! And that just so happened to occur the week or two after Cote left?! Coincidence?! We know what Gibbs’ would think about that! The fact is a lot of young people and women watched for the strong character of Ziva. And other young people and women tuned in for the sexual tension between Tony and Ziva and the hopes for Tiva! I’m not surprised the demo went down without them. The funny thing is, a lot of anti Tiva people always used the argument that NCIS was about the cases and wasn’t meant to be a soap opera. Now it seems that relationships and marital woes and creating couples seems to be the new fascination taking place on the show. It’s really sad if you think about it. The show had once in a blue moon chemistry with Tiva and they squandered it. Would NCIS be fading still even if Michael and Cote were still on?! Who knows!? Unfortunately that’s one thing that we will never know. Although it would be interesting to see what would happen to the demo if Tiva were ever to reunite on screen again! Me thinks there would be a definite boost!
FLCheesehead
February 23, 2017 @ 3:38 pm
I agree that it would be interesting. Everyone seems to think that Michael & Cote together would cause ratings to “go through the roof”. Fans are always telling Michael to get Cote on Bull because of the ratings she’d bring. Or that the two should have their own show because it would be an “automatic hit”. I’m not convinced a Tiva reunion would be a huge ratings winner, but it would be interesting to see the effect it would have.
As for the ratings going down the week after Ziva left, I’d have been surprised if they didn’t. PPF was heavily marketed as “Ziva’s good-bye”. It was aired after weeks of heavy promo that a major character was leaving. I don’t know anyone who expected the show’s first episodes after Ziva left to rate as highly. There was no way the show was going to bounce back from that, and I imagine the producers and the network knew that when she said she was leaving and they chose not to make a deal that would get her to stay.
I don’t, however, think the show “squandered” the chemistry they had in Tiva. They built it and played with it and wrote for it and had fun with it for eight years. They didn’t squander it. They just ended it badly. Even the pro-Tiva people say that if PPF had ended with Tiva going off into the sunset together, or Cote coming back as an occasional guest star, they’d have been fine. So it’s not that the show didn’t take advantage of the pairing. They just provided an unfinished and unsatisfying end.
FLCheesehead
February 22, 2017 @ 7:54 pm
I think it’s kind of remarkable that a 14yo show like NCIS is still as steady as it is. This week might be its lowest rating, but even so, it was tied for second on the night (behind This Is Us), and gave CBS its highest rating on Tuesday. So … maybe not the juggernaut it used to be, but still a strong performer, as you said.
I’m sure much will be made of NCIS’ “demise” and how ratings would’ve been through the roof if Tiva were still a thing. And, frankly, I often wonder how NCIS would have fared against TIU if Michael Weatherly & Cote de Pablo were still there. My guess is that NCIS would have dropped regardless, simply because TIU pulls so strongly at the emotions of the 18-49 demo.
For better or worse, NCIS is a crime procedural. Even if you toss full-blown, consummated, married & pregnant Tiva into the mix, it’s first and foremost a crime show. This Is Us came out of the gate as a heartstring-pulling, sentimental, emotional, festival of feelings. If written and acted well (which fans seem to think TIU is), that type of thing is always going beat out a dead sailor in Rock Creek Park with the coveted younger demo.
robert
February 22, 2017 @ 5:49 pm
cast departures has hurt NCIS. Tony and Ziva were popular among younger viewers