Are ‘Castle’ season 9 renewal odds bolstered by ABC’s struggles elsewhere?

We feel like we’ve spent a lot of time over the past few months discussing the ratings woes of “Castle,” but something has really changed since the middle of February: We’ve since gone on to discuss more of the ratings woes of ABC in general. This is a network who recently leg go of Paul Lee as its programming head, and new boss Channing Dungey has her work cut out for her trying to sort all of this out.

What we know right now is that the majority of the show’s long-standing hits have been renewed … but should all of them be? “Quantico” and “Agents of SHIELD,” for example, both have been given extra seasons, but over the past month “Castle” has drawn better ratings averages than them in the 18-49 demographic. It’s also faring better than another bubble show in “Nashville,” “Of Kings and Prophets” has already been canceled, “Beyond the Tank” floundered in its one week on Tuesdays at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, and “The Family” is not inspiring a whole lot of confidence.

Ultimately, what we’re trying to say here is this: While “Castle” looked almost like a dead show walking in the fall, it’s suddenly looking like a solid contributor, a healthy alternative to some of the other programming. It even drew the same demo rating as “Once Upon a Time” this week. We’d still consider the fairy-tale drama a higher priority for ABC than it, but that show and the three Shonda Rhimes series (we’re not including “The Catch” yet) are the only ones actually performing better than “Castle” in the scripted drama department in the demo. Add to this syndication / DVR ratings / international popularity, and you have a show that is stating its case.

There are still some hurdles coming up, including making sure that the principal cast is on board, but through a certain lens we are starting to feel optimistic that “Castle” could be coming back. With that said, we wouldn’t be shocked if ABC did something like move it to Tuesdays, where it can try to plug that terrible hole that they have after “Agents of SHIELD.”

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