‘Survivor Cambodia: Second Chance’ spotlight: Can Ciera Eastin be the ultimate underdog again?

When “Survivor: Blood vs. Water” was airing, you could see the glisten in Jeff Probst’s eye when he talked about Ciera Eastin. He was a big fan of how she played the game, and we understand why. She was not a huge competitor in all the challenges, but she fought hard to stay alive, was strategic, and of course had that big moment where she “voted out her mom.” (We’ll get to that later.)

Thanks to all of this, it was almost a complete no-brainer that she would be asked to come back for “Survivor Cambodia: Second Chance.” The moment she was put on that ballot, it was a no-brainer that America would vote her in. Now comes the interesting question: Can someone who is so well-known for playing the game hard blend into the background like she did early on the first time? Our guess is that this will be a very different sort of experience for her.

History lesson – 5th place, “Survivor: Blood vs. Water.” Despite being on a tribe that went to many tribal councils in the early going, and being one of the weaker tribe members physically, Ciera along with Katie Collins did a good job at making sure that someone else went home. She started to really become a known character to viewers when she almost hoped that her mom Laura didn’t return from Redemption Island to put a target on her, and when she did, she weeks later was one of the votes who sent her home. Her final claim to fame is when she decided to go to rocks with Hayden and Katie against Tyson, Gervase, and Monica. It didn’t work, but it showed that she had guts and was willing to make a big play. She survived that tribal council, but went home following the return of Tina to the game.

What worked last time – Having a natural understanding of how the game works, how to avoid being a target, and how to make compelling arguments as to why she should stay. She had a very good social game, and also utilized the element of surprise very well given how many players on her season probably underestimated her abilities. She made it further than any other first-time player on her season, and was clearly one of the standouts.

What needs to change – The biggest thing for Ciera is that she is going to have to create a perception on her Bayon tribe that she can be worked with and even manipulated. This doesn’t mean that she will be, but she needs to diffuse a target early on as someone playing the game really hard, and let other players shoot themselves in the foot. Other than that, for her in the challenges it’s about finding the right place for her to feel valuable. She also needs to make sure that everyone remembers just how overblown the whole “voted out her mom” thing really is. The only person who didn’t vote out Laura was Laura! Ciera voting along with her would have done nothing to help her. (We don’t actually think it was that great of a move even back then; nobody really needed to know she was that ruthless. The biggest thing it did for her was raise her odds of being invited back … so maybe it’s a good move if she wins this season?)

Potential obstacles – Everyone knows that Ciera is going to play hard, and that she’s willing to flip if she gets the sense that it will benefit her. Going into this game we feel like she’s in a similar position almost to Cirie Fields in “Heroes vs. Villains,” where everyone knew what she was capable of, and there would be fears that she would manipulate and play them the same exact way. Cirie had a larger body of work in two seasons compared to Ciera’s one season, but we feel like the paranoia from the other contestants could be the same regardless.

Prediction – We liked Ciera’s game a lot the first time; she made some mistakes along the way, but she had killer instinct. The problem is that now everyone knows she has that instinct, and since she’s not a physical beast, it’s hard to really gauge her value to a tribe in Cambodia. Unless she finds a solid alliance that needs her early on, we could envision her being one of the first people out. There are three people we’re worried about getting the first-boot title; there are two others we’ll be getting to later on in the spotlight series.

With all of this being said, if our prediction is off-base and she makes it to the merge, watch out: She’ll be a major threat to win the whole game. She’s strategic enough to make the moves necessary.

How well do you think Ciera will fare this season? Vote now in the attached poll, and head over here to see some other “Survivor” spotlights! Also, you can sign up here to get some more TV updates on everything we write out about via our CarterMatt Newsletter. (Photo: CBS.)