The Amazing Race 30: What should the ratings expectations be?

The Amazing Race 30 filming is currently underway, and production is already a little more high-profile because of Jessica & Cody.

These two Big Brother cast members are among the racers competing for the grand prize this time around, and they have a devoted following. You can debate the merits of Cody’s casting all you want, but that’s not really what the point of this article is. Instead, this is more about trying to determine if casting these two was a smart business decision for CBS, a network in need of getting some more viewers to a franchise that has seemed on the verge of cancellation the past year or two.

Before we get into what CBS is expecting for season 30 ratings-wise, let’s look at where they’ve been the past couple of seasons. Season 29 of the show averaged a 0.8 rating in the 18-49 demographic, a decline of around 20% from where the show was for season 28. This, in turn, was around a drop of 10% from where the show was for season 27. This is not a series at this point in its run that is consistently getting more than a 1.0 rating — while CBS would probably love that, it may not be feasible. It’s struggled to get a good timeslot on the schedule, and more than that it’s hard to get new viewers of a show this far into its run. We do think it’s possible, but in order to do that CBS would need a new promotional campaign where they bring the show back more to its roots and reintroduce the concept to new viewers — two people traveling the world together with fewer gimmicks. Make them real people; granted, having reality stars on there may not help with that premise, but the belief is that Jessica & Cody will be a net positive.

How much of a net positive are we talking about here? Over the course of the summer Big Brother consistently generated around a 1.8 or 1.9 rating for the majority of its shows — even if every single Amazing Race viewer was watching it (highly unlikely/pretty much impossible), there would still be a full 1.0 in the demo who wasn’t. If CBS can get just 10% of that audience to watch the new Amazing Race season because of Jessica and Cody then it will be a huge success for them getting them on the show. It could, in turn, offset some of the decline that tends to happen naturally to shows around this point.

Our ultimate Amazing Race 30 ratings assessment

If the show can keep its full 0.8 average from last season it could stand a chance at coming back as a midseason replacement once more. Any lower than that is The Amazing Race making the perfect argument that it should end on a nice round number like 30.

Do you think that Jessica and Cody are actually going to help The Amazing Race ratings, or will they detract from it instead? Share below!

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