Absentia ratings: What are hopes for Stana Katic series?

We’ve talked about a wide array of topics on the subject of Absentia, but as a ratings junkie, this one certainly piques our interest. How will the Stana Katic series fare when it comes on the air? Where should we set the bar? These are interesting questions, though they are also ones that are difficult to fully respond to given that there is so much that is still unclear when it comes to an official U.S. home.

It’s true that much of the show’s performance will depend on who has it and where it is on the schedule. For example, were it airing on a major broadcast network, we’d hope Absentia would score above a 0.7 rating in the 18-49 demographic — provided that it was airing between Sunday and a Thursday. If it was a Friday or a Saturday, we’d say lower. With this being a show financed and filmed internationally, we don’t want to set the bar too high beyond this — look at some other shows like Ransom, Rookie Blue, Crossing Lines, or Hannibal for examples.

Now that we’ve put all of this out there … we don’t expect Absentia to air on a broadcast network. Where would it go? When you look across the schedule, there’s just not much room unless it airs later in America than most everywhere else. The only open spots are on Saturdays, and that didn’t work so well for Ransom on CBS and we don’t want that here.

With that, let’s look at cable to generate some more of our expectations. Our hope would be that Absentia, with its ambitious mystery and Katic’s star power, could draw numbers similar to what some TNT shows like Animal Kingdom, Claws, and Major Crimes are in the demo — around a 0.3 or a 0.4. If it averages that and over a million total viewers, it’d be considered a hit on most cable channels, especially as an acquisition. If it airs on TNT, we certainly do think that is possible given her built-in audience there from Castle repeats. It could also happen over on USA.

If the show were to air outside of the main basic-cable networks like a TNT, an FX, or a USA, the numbers would likely be lower. How much so? That’s where it really all depends on the marketing, the home, the timeslot, and so many other factors that are hard to determine.

If Absentia ends up streaming…

Well, the entire point of this article is moot since the show’s ratings won’t matter as much on a streaming provider … at least on our end. Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu don’t tend to release this sort of information, so we just have to prepare already for a complete lack of data on that front in the event the show is picked up there.

Do you have any specific ratings expectations when it comes to Absentia? Let us know now in the comments below!

Meanwhile, be sure to check out some other news on the series, including some more discussions on potential network homes. (Photo: Sony.)