‘Survivor: Blood vs. Water’ analysis: Where should Katie go from here?

For the second straight week, we find ourselves writing a “Survivor: Blood vs. Water” analysis article knowing full well that there was not too much from this past episode to analyze. Vytas Baskauskas getting voted out was a foregone conclusion, and it feels like Tina Wesson practically fell on her own sword to save her daughter Katie Collins. That is really the one thing worth nothing that was an interesting move on Tina’s fault: She made sure that the entire focus of the tribe was her rather than her daughter, which leaves Katie now in a pretty interesting spot moving forward.

So does she have a good shot of actually lasting beyond Wednesday night? While she may be the only person on the outside of a seven-person alliance, the other players would be smart to keep her for now. She’s desperate and will go with any plan, she’s a solid number, and so long as there aren’t many more challenges ahead centered on balancing coins, she should not be much of threat. Should she still go before the final four? Definitely, since she’s got three near-guaranteed votes on jury (if they all go there) in Aras, Vytas, and her mom.

The first move that Katie should make is obvious: Get Monica Culpepper out of the game. When you are in her position, you want to get rid of people who could be possibly brought to the end. If the jury thinks that Monica is too paranoid (and her post-merge game has been poor), she’ll be the new winner of the No Jury Votes For You award. (One person in the final three seems to always get ignored.) Since she has no real ally right now, her best move is to join up with another pair, possibly in Monica’s place.

So who should she pair with? Here’s our ranking of the top three.

3. Hayden and Caleb – The reason that this is the worst option for her is pretty simple: These two guys are likable. They could sway Vytas into throwing them a vote, and Hayden has already shown that he can win a game like this. Katie would be committing game suicide to try to go with people who are not only likable, but shouldn’t face a bitter jury. Caleb’s only problem is simply that Colton is his fiance.

2. Tyson and Gervase – They’ve been controlling the game, and unless this jury is extremely bitter, she will probably still lose her. The one good thing about maybe trying to work with these two to take out another pair like Hayden and Caleb is that maybe they will split votes from the jury, and if she gets her old alliance and maybe one more vote, she could end up winning the game.

1. Laura and Ciera – This would be our route, mostly because we feel like Laura would end up hurting Ciera’s jury chances, and Katie is an option that brings something a little different to the table. While we think that Ciera is playing a pretty good game, we don’t really get the feeling that anyone in the game right now seems to think so. If Katie helps to get rid of a couple of big players, we couldn’t see a Tyson or a Hayden being bitter towards her.

If you were in Katie’s shoes, who would you work with? Share below! Also, click here to check out that preview where Ciera suggests that she may want to get her mom out of the game.

Photo: CBS