‘Survivor: Philippines’ prediction: Jonathan Penner’s plot for revenge

Sometimes on “Survivor,” there is ambiguity; and other times, there is a nail waiting to be slammed into somebody’s coffin. At this very moment, the window is closing for one Jonathan Penner, and he is going to have to pull off a miracle akin to Russell Hantz’s post-merge game in “Survivor: Samoa” (though hopefully with a better social game and less arrogance) if he wants any shot at going far. He’s used his immunity idol, and he needed to thanks to Jeff Kent’s baffling decision to go from being in a potential final four to being at best seventh place in a larger alliance.

So will Penner be able to turn this around? If you doubt the man, then you obviously have not seen very much of his game thus far.

Biggest mover and shaker – Penner. It has to be. After all, we are not in a situation where the other castaways need to cast him aside. Skupin, Lisa, Malcolm, and Denise could use him to form a new alliance, and with a careful play of Malcolm’s idol, they become the final five. Malcolm, Lisa, and Denise have to know that Abi-Maria, Artis, and Pete are a trio, and they will either need to make a pact with Jeff and Carter (who have clearly shown that they cannot be trusted) or Skupin and Penner. We don’t think either returning player is in a good spot to win this game, but it would seem too soon for them to leave tonight.

Idol watch – It would be smart for someone to flush out Abi’s idol, but we don’t think anyone will be that bold. As a matter of fact, we would be surprised if anyone plays one tonight, regardless of whether or not we think that Malcolm should consider it to avoid a purple rock scenario if he goes with a five-person alliance.

Likely elimination – Jeff Kent. Cue the laugh track. While it would be a good move to get Abi’s idol flushed out, it’s a risky move for Lisa, Malcolm, and Denise to try and make since it risks alienating some people who could still help them later on. Meanwhile, it may be easy for Penner to convince everyone on Tandang to get rid of a traitor; this allows him the opportunity to be with some people that he can help, and it does not force a major betrayal anywhere since it would keep a new alliance pretty secret. We just wonder how much Jeff will pout if this happens: not only will he have made a dumb move in order to beat the returning players, but he will have lost to both of them.

What do you think is going to happen tonight?