The Blacklist season 7 renewal odds: How much hope should we have?

While we’re still early on in The Blacklist season 6, we don’t think it’s too early to kick off some talk of a season 7! We’re four episodes in and with that, there’s a reasonable sample size as to how the series is performing in the ratings.

New The Blacklist preview video – Be sure to check out our discussion on what lies ahead in our video at the bottom of this article! Also, remember to subscribe to CarterMatt on YouTube so you don’t miss out on our weekly The Blacklist videos.

One thing that is very important to point out regarding the ratings to date is simply this: NBC had to expect some steep declines. The series moved from Wednesdays, where it had a pretty-solid timeslot with a large pool of available viewers, to Friday at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. Fridays are a notoriously tough night for shows, especially when you consider that it is up against a show in Hawaii Five-0 that could have a similar audience and has been stable in that spot for some time.

To date, season 6 is averaging a 0.7 rating in the 18-49 demographic, but over the next few weeks that number will likely slide to a 0.6. The numbers are still slightly skewed by the first episode, which aired on Thursday after The Titan Games and was able to take advantage of the lead-in. Is averaging a 0.6 rating going to be enough for The Blacklist to get a season 7?

Here’s the biggest thing that the show has going for it: It is performing at the moment. It is performing better by a good margin than Taken and Midnight, Texas, the two most-recent shows to have this timeslot on NBC. One of the things that a network always should consider when thinking about a timeslot is whether or not they really feel like they have a show that would perform better if they’re going to cancel what they already had. Out of the shows NBC would be willing to move to Fridays, it’s hard to imagine any of them doing too much better than what The Blacklist is getting. We think a show like Manifest has too much of a young viewership, and New Amsterdam is still reasonably untested without having This Is Us airing before it.

Another positive factor that The Blacklist has going for it at the moment, is strong DVR numbers and viewership across other platforms. It has a great streaming deal and an international following that will stick with this show no matter where it airs.

Really, the two things going against it at present are this: The live+same-day ratings are still on the low end of NBC’s scripted programming, and the series hails from an outside studio, meaning that NBC doesn’t make as much money from it as they do with other series. We’re reasonably confident that there could still be a season 7 (we’re more confident at present than doubtful), but it’s still too early to say this for sure. The ratings the rest of the season could play a role in this, so keep watching live!

What do you think the chances are at present of The Blacklist season 7 airing on NBC? Be sure to share right now in the comments! (Photo: NBC.)