Ratings Progress Report: Does Fox’s ‘Rosewood’ have rosy outlook?

Before the fall season started, there were many questions out there about Fox’s new Morris Chestnut series “Rosewood.” There is a certain procedural element to the show, after all, and there are programs on the network (see “Bones”) that have done very well. Also, it has a vibrant setting in Miami, and it was paired alongside a show in “Empire” that has become the biggest show running now on on network TV?

The question we understand many having right now is this: Could “Rosewood” have done better if “Empire” was moved up an hour, and it received more of the lead-in? Sure, but in our new Ratings Progress Report piece, we’re going to explain just why it probably benefits the series to be where it is … and why there is reason to be hopeful for its future.

The good news – So far through five episodes, “Rosewood” is averaging a 1.8 in the 18-49 demographic. If you look at Fox’s programming across the board, this makes the show the #2 drama on the network behind only “Empire.” Also, it is doing this without the help of Cookie and company beforehand. Maybe there are some people out there who just turn on the TV early and watch this knowing that “Empire” is on afterwards, but it is probably far less than the number who would watch “Empire” and then leave the TV for this. The show will benefit long-term more from this timeslot, which is good since given its recent 22-episode order, it will have to air for a few weeks coming up without “Empire” around to help it.

The bad news – This is still a show that has been untested without “Empire” in the lineup, and its numbers have fallen significantly since the premiere. From that first episode to the most-recent one to air before the World Series, the show lost around 0.9 in the demo. That’s a drop of over 35% in the most-important measure for advertisers. While its recent ratings in the 1.4-1.6 range will get it renewed for a second season, it’s not giving it a whole lot of wiggle room if the inevitable happens and the show sheds viewers going into season 2.

Ultimately, the good news for “Rosewood” fans is that you don’t have anything to worry about for now. With much of Fox’s lineup on other nights in ratings shambles, they’re not going to get rid of one of the few shows consistently getting around a 1.5. “Rosewood,” “Gotham,” and “Empire” are the only three shows aside from Animation Domination we’re confident will return next year … at least provided that the former two don’t fall hard in the spring.

Let us know now in the comments what you think about the performance of “Rosewood” so far.