Ratings Bubble Report: ‘Castle’ season 8 faces even renewal / cancellation odds
In the past here at CarterMatt we’ve done a series of Ratings Debate articles at around April, and while those are fantastic for looking at shows that are down to the wire, the reality is that many shows are getting renewed earlier and earlier every year, and we want to have some time to get in a little bit of analysis. This is what some of these Ratings Bubble Reports are all about: Looking at the numbers so far, and also what can be done to ensure that a show is spared cancellation down the road.
“Castle” is an interesting place to start here. It’s a show that has devoted fans and performs decently in DVR figures, but it has also lost about 40% of its live audience in the 18-49 demographic since the start of the sixth season. We don’t think that natural viewer erosion is the sole culprit here, either. The producers have made some controversial decisions, and that has left of of ABC’s last great procedural shows in some danger of going away before season 9.
The good news – ABC is having a mediocre year overall. Other than Thursday night, can you really name a night that is free of any challenges? Maybe Friday is somewhat stable, but Tuesday at 10:00 p.m. is a huge hole, “Nashville” is struggling on Wednesdays, and Sundays have “Once Upon a Time” and a gap following it. “Quantico” has a ton of buzz, but its ratings have slipped to the point where they’re not that much better than “Castle.” Therefore, canceling the Nathan Fillion – Stana Katic series would mean that the network is losing another pitch-hitter that could come in and provide some ratings whenever the network needed them. You could always just give it a 13-episode final season, and have it fill a spot after another show is canceled. Executive producers Alexi Hawley and Terence Paul Winter have said that they would like to make more.
Also, “Castle” is popular internationally. That’s not the most important factor, but it does matter.
The bad news – The ratings have dropped so much that you have to wonder what they would be for a season 9. Would we be below a 1.0 in the demo on a weekly basis? Maybe the show can stop the bleeding by just pairing up Rick and Kate and stopping with the controversial twists, but that may not be enough anymore. Another danger to the show could just be ABC’s apparent interest in turning “The Bachelor” in the winter into a three-hour event. If their “Bachelor Live” aftershow draws similar ratings, it’s a better player for them given that it costs significantly less to make. Sure, you could still you “Castle” for the fall and the spring if you wanted, but the odds of 22 episodes would be lower.
Current prediction – “Castle” should get a shortened final season, but we’d say the odds are about 50-50 for now. Given that we’ve been around for almost a decade, it would be a disservice for ABC to not tell the creative team that it is ending in enough time to allow for a proper send-off.
We’re going to have more of these Ratings Bubble Reports daily throughout the first few weeks of January; stay tuned!
Jay
February 22, 2016 @ 4:31 am
Castle had the perfect send off at the end of season 7. This is going to be an anti-climactic finale.
Sam
January 10, 2016 @ 2:07 am
You all are right on target with your comments. People have invested in Castle because of the love story and interaction of Castle and Beckett…..and their interactions with the rest of the original cast. I thought it couldn’t get any worse after the stupid wedding disappearance plot….until this season and the Castle/Beckett separation. I believe those writers don’t have a clue as to what made Castle so successful and so beloved by so many fans. Hopefully someone can right the ship and bring back the Castle that we all love!!
Vikki
January 2, 2016 @ 4:14 pm
I would love to see Castle return without these showrunners and with new writers. I’d only want it back if SK and NF will share more than 5 minutes of screen time and more cases – as well as dip into more home and personal scenes. So many options. More Martha, more Lainie and no Vikram or Hayley. Lets get back to focusing on the original cast. Some fine tuning with showrunners who understand their audience and these characters, and yes, there is more life to Castle-but not like it is now.
Judy Berlin
March 1, 2016 @ 8:16 pm
Exactly correct. Unfortunately, the so called show runners have invested into their bizarre story line, character changes and banal “twists” and are unlikely to change as the audience and ratings turn negative. We fans are just being ignored
Beckett
January 2, 2016 @ 7:15 am
Couldn’t have said it better microgrey! The writers are in major denial and that’s scary. They keep saying they want to make it fun again and bring back the original feel if the show. But they have to realise that after the journey the show has gone on, that’s impossibke for anyone to write, they need the drama and not the stupid slapstick comedy that I think even Nathan Fillion is bored of as his sloppy acting in season 8 is certainly in the comedy scenes. He seems now to only shine when he is on screen with Stana Katic, they still bring out the best in the show and in eachother even if they don’t get along they have signed up so they have to do it and yet their characters are hardly together at the moment. Bring the serious cases back with the jokes being kept at the precinct and not throughout as that is BOT working.
Microgrey
January 1, 2016 @ 8:45 pm
Castle should be renewed, but I’m not sure I would re-hire the current showrunners. They have completely misread their audience and alienated some of the most die-hard fans in the industry. Unless they can turn things around quickly, these lost viewers are unlikely to return. This doesn’t bode well for renewal. The biggest danger is that the current showrunners seem to think they’re doing a great job. As long as they think that way, they are unlikely to implement the changes needed to boost the ratings.