Ratings debate: Does ‘The Carrie Diaries’ have a shot of staying on The CW?

Back before the fall season first began, there was one CW pilot that we were circling as something that could be a home run for the network: “The Carrie Diaries.” After all, it took a popular franchise (“Sex and the City”), a promising young actress (AnnaSophia Robb), and a network that has, with such shows as “Gossip Girl” and “90210,” presented some memorable coming-of-age stories.

So what happened along the way to put the show in danger? It failed to get off to a strong start immediately as the lead-off hitter for the network’s Monday-night lineup, and while the number have not fallen much, they were never really good enough to begin with for the show to be guaranteed a second season. We’re going to be taking a deep dive now as a part of our latest ratings debate feature, so be sure to stay to the very end in order to see whether or not we think that Carrie Bradshaw will see the light of day again in the fall.

Most-recent performance – 0.4 in the 18-49 demographic, with just under a million viewers for the March 18 show.

Why it should go – The answer here is simple for “Carrie Diaries” detractors: it’s simply not good enough for a first-year show. Most network dramas tend to drop over time, and if this show is already at a 0.4 on what should be one of The CW’s four biggest nights of the week, that doesn’t bode well for a season 2.

What makes this number even scarier is that until last week, the series had not competed against “Dancing with the Stars” at all, and on Monday it will face even more competition from “The Voice.” When you consider that they canceled “The Secret Circle” last year, despite it getting better numbers than this, we can’t be too optimistic about the show’s chances.

Why it should stay – But it has a loyal fanbase! This is the best argument we’ve heard about why “The Carrie Diaries” should stick around. It is generally well-liked by critics, with Robb’s performance as a young Carrie especially praised. If it can find some way to get some buzz and lure in some fans, it’s possible that the show could pull a “Scandal” and build between seasons 1 and 2. Sometimes, you do need a network to give you a chance; remember, the ratings for both “Mad Men” and “Breaking Bad” were both pretty poor when they first aired, and ABC would have sorely missed out had they canceled “Shark Tank” rather than giving it another chance.

The verdict – We’re not going to completely rule out Carrie and company, since The CW did promote the show heavily all winter, they have aired repeats of it frequently, and it does have a following. However, we have to say that with “Supernatural,” “The Vampire Diaries,” and “Arrow” renewed, and with both “Hart of Dixie” and “Nikita” being likely renewed, you have to think that this could be a casualty. “90210” may be ending, but one hour next fall is sure to belong to “The Originals.”

With there being a number of interesting pilots out there, either “The Carrie Diaries,” “Beauty and the Beast,” or both will bite the dust. The irony here is that we really think the Carrie license hurt the show in some ways: the name “Sex and the City” may have kept conservative parents from letting their kids watch, and the continuity issues between the two shows caused many fans of the original series to vocally protest without even giving this “prequel” a chance. It’s a rather fun show, but it was also one that many opted to not give a chance to. Right now, we put its odds at returning at around 25%.

Want to read some more of our ratings debate pieces? If so, be sure to visit the link here.

Photo: The CW