TV Logjams: Chicago Fire vs. STAR vs. SEAL Team vs. Modern Family

There are of course many interesting new TV Logjams coming up on network TV this fall, but Wednesdays at 9:00 p.m. Eastern is one that we’re perhaps the most curious about. While the schedule for most networks is the same, the inclusion of Chicago Fire in the place of Law & Order: SVU does raise a number of interesting questions about whether or not it will fare better or worse in this environment.

As we often do with these articles, let’s give you a pretty panoramic look now at this timeslot to see where everything could land.

Modern Family – In terms of the 18-49 demographic the comedy will almost certainly win this timeslot and there’s no surprise there — it has the history and, to go along with that, it’s not going to feel too much competition from any of these other shows.

SEAL Team – How will it fare in season 2, and with a new showrunner to go along with it? Season 1 averaged a 1.0 rating in the 18-49 demographic, but for most of the spring the military drama was closer to a 0.8 or 0.9. That’s what we expect the average to be for most of season 2, which could end up putting the show as far back as fourth place depending on the competition.

Chicago Fire – Will this show and SEAL Team share some viewers? That is a cause for concern but for right now, we favor Chicago Fire for its longevity. However, the departure of Monica Raymund could prove troublesome. As of right now we project it averaging a 1.0 rating or so, which will probably lead to it finishing #3 in the spot.

STAR – Finally, you can never discount the value of a good lead-in. STAR is a natural compliment to Empire on the schedule and it this timeslot, its ratings are almost equal to what they were the season before. We don’t anticipate that happening again, but if it draws a 1.1 or 1.2 rating on average for season 3, that should be enough to get it another season.

What are you planning to watch on TV Wednesday nights at 9:00 p.m. this fall?