What’s going to happen with Wednesday nights at 9:00 p.m. Eastern this fall? It’s one of the more intriguing timeslot battles out there, largely because there is no clear winner and there are a wide array of shows bringing something different to the table.
Many years ago, it felt like Modern Family was a lock to dominate at this time, but the tables have clearly turned and that show no longer has its foothold in the same way that it once did. Meanwhile, with Empire, it’s at an early timeslot now and there is not all that much to worry about. Let’s look at the contenders, and try to gauge how some of them are going to far.
Law & Order: SVU – Probably the big winner in terms of not having to compete against a similar show in Criminal Minds anymore. It doesn’t have to worry about another crime procedural taking it on, and it wouldn’t shock us at all to see SVU stay at around a 1.3 rating in the 18-49 demographic for the season.
Modern Family – Meanwhile, we anticipate that this show will continue to fall just because that’s been the trend. There isn’t much direct competition in this timeslot, but it’s still probably going down below a 2.0 average for the first time in a season. It’ll likely still win the timeslot overall because of the competition.
SEAL Team – The presence of David Boreanaz should help the show get a little bit of buzz right out of the gate, but there’s no real tracking at the moment to suggest that viewers are going to flock hard to a military show at the moment. Maybe it premieres solid with a 1.8 or so, but our feeling is that it’ll come in at around the same ratings for SVU over the course of its season.
Star – Great move to put the Fox show after Empire this season. The bad news is that it’s happening one year into the show and it’s lost some of the power of that lead-in already. Expect it to get around a 1.1-1.2 if it’s lucky for most of the season.
Dynasty – This is the real wild-card for the schedule, since The CW is rebooting an old franchise and hoping to get young viewers in the process. The show has great people involved, but we just don’t see the audience for it. Our thinking is around a 0.3 based on everything that’s out there.