Where ‘Outlander’ season 3 will stand in TV’s crazy scrum this spring

Following its Show of the Year win at the CarterMatt Awards, we promised many different “Outlander” features until the show’s premiere presumably this spring. For this one, we are talking schedule-planning, or at least getting a sense of what sort of impact the move to Sunday night is going to have on the easily-quantified live+same day ratings.

The point here is not to speak so much in terms of pure numbers — we’ve already written articles discussing our expectations in that measure at length. For the sake of this article, we’re basing our discussion more on competition, and whether or not any of the following shows should be seen as threats to the series’ casual viewership. It’s already assumed that every diehard fan of the show, including many of the people probably reading this piece, are going to be watching “Outlander” the first moment that they can either live on Starz or on the app. But what about some of the people who enjoy it “when they get around to it” as opposed to viewing it as must-watch-now TV? This group does exist out there, and we’re fascinated by them given that this is the group of viewers we rarely hear from online. They could be the ones who help the show set some new ratings records when it returns.

The following shows are going to be airing against “Outlander” at 9:00 p.m. Eastern time potentially at some point during the third season. Some of them may share viewers with it, whereas some others could not be any more different.

“The Walking Dead” – Whether or not the two shows ever even cross paths is a matter of clever scheduling. Our assumption is that “Outlander” will premiere in April (it’s better to believe that until Starz says otherwise), and the zombie drama should come to a close fairly early on in the month. If the finale airs on April 2, it makes sense for “Outlander” to start at some point after that. We’re not worried at all about the show potentially airing an episode on Easter Sunday (April 16) given that by the time night rolls around, most people tend to be through with their holiday festivities.

“Fear the Walking Dead” – This will likely premiere after the flagship show concludes, but its viewership is significantly smaller and full mostly with people either hoping that it gets better or zombie loyalists. There’s nothing to be afraid of.

“The Leftovers” – The HBO series from Damon Lindelof is also one of our favorites out there, so the idea of it and “Outlander” going head to head is both rather brutal and also rather depressing. Luckily, we don’t really see the two shows as enormous threats to compete against each other, given that both of them are premium series that fans have multiple ways that they can be viewed.

“Madam Secretary” – Maybe there’s a small bit of carryover between the CBS political drama and “Outlander,” but we don’t see too many viewers choosing “Madam Secretary” over it as a live option given that the odds of being spoiled on key events in the hours that follow it are significantly less.

“Chicago Justice” – The series is premiering on NBC on Sunday, March 5, but is there really much in the way of crossover viewership here? It’s hard to see it given that the shows are so very different, but fans of the Chicago series may at the very least be checking out the series premiere.

“Family Guy” – Whatever sort of crossover viewership was there for “Outlander” and “Chicago Justice,” we don’t imagine it being here at all with “Family Guy.”

“Time After Time” – This new ABC drama is a curious competitor, given that it is another period series with time travel as a main component. With that said, it’s hard to gauge a newbie show as a significant ratings threat, given that many devoted “Outlander” fans may already have what that show provides and then some here.

One bit of good news is that FX decided to premiere their new series “Feud” revolving around Bette Davis and Joan Crawford at 10:00 p.m. Eastern on March 5 rather than 9:00. This means that after “Outlander” premieres, fans of the two shows can check them both out without any overlap. This is probably the most similar series on the docket in terms of both quality and buzzworthy subject matter.

In surveying the field of major competition, the biggest takeaway that we have is that nothing should stand in the way of “Outlander” drawing series-high ratings at some point during season 3. While some of the competition here is very strong, we don’t get the vibe that any of it will draw too many casual or devoted viewers away.

So what if “Outlander” premieres later than April, such as in May or June? It may be spared of some of the competition above, but it would then have to look at “Game of Thrones” on the horizon — it’ll still have its audience, but that’s not something that is fun to air against. (One of the mysteries in here is that Starz presumably also has “American Gods” on tap for the spring — they’re in a position now where they may have to either double up on shows or shake up the timing of their schedule altogether.)

Do you think that there is a threat out there to “Outlander” and a potential ratings boost? Let us know in the comments, and head over here to get some further news when it comes to the show. (Photo: Starz.)