‘Dancing with the Stars 21’ prediction: Will Nick Carter, Bindi Irwin, or Hayes Grier win? Vote!

Tonight marks the season 21 premiere of “Dancing with the Stars,” and after spending the past several days spotlighting all of the contestants relentlessly here at CarterMatt, it is time to put our money (or at least our keystrokes) where our mouth is with our latest prediction piece. Take a look below to see where we think all of the celebrities / pros will finish the season, and then, tell us in the poll at the bottom of this article if you agree or disagree with us!

For the record, we’re basing these predictions on our perception of each person’s potential dance ability, the size of their fan following, and the results of similar stars in past seasons.

13. Kim Zolciak and Tony Dovolani – We hate to do this to Tony, who has been eliminated first on a number of occasions. We just don’t see it with Kim; she won’t be the worst dancer tonight most likely, but “Real Housewives” for the most part don’t have a great track record. (We’re not counting Joanna Krupa, since she was a Housewife after doing the show.) Also, the first boot is often someone unexpected.

12. Gary Busey and Anna Trebunskaya – We’d like to see Gary go further, mostly because he’s wacky and will make for great entertainment. Unfortunately, we don’t get the sense that voters of this show will vote for “wacky”; they like humor, but more of the Cloris Leachman variety. Gary’s just a step above David Hasselhoff, who somehow was eliminated first.

11. Paula Deen and Louis van Amstel – Remember, Paula does have fans that have continued to support her. She’s not going to be a good dancer, but those people will keep the controversial chef around for at least a couple of weeks.

10. Chaka Khan and Keo Motsepe – We’re not trying to make this boring by eliminating the older dancers one after another starting at #12, but we just don’t see any of these three having the fan following to make it deep into the competition like Tommy Chong did. Hey, at least Keo lasts longer this season than he ever has.

9. Victor Espinoza and Karina Smirnoff – Our big concern with Victor is that we have no idea what his personality is going to be like, and unless he is an amazing dancer, we could just see him being relatively forgotten about.

8. Andy Grammer and Allison Holker – We feel like Andy will be reasonably good at this, but we’re not sure if he is going to be able to have the complete reckless abandon to go for it on some of the sillier dancers. He’s one of those guys who comes across as very “cool,” so will he really embrace the show’s campier side?

7. Alek Skarlatos and Lindsay Arnold – Alec will be buoyed very much by being an American hero and will get a ton of votes in the early going, but it ultimately comes down to whether or not he can dance and also entertain. We figure he’ll be decent, but he doesn’t have that same inspirational angle in the ballroom that Noah Galloway did.

6. Carlos PenaVega and Witney Carson – The reality here is that we could see Carlos going home even before this, despite our confidence that he will be a really good dancer. We just don’t think that he will have the fan following to make it all the way to the end.

5. Hayes Grier and Emma Slater – It’s a similar situation for Hayes, who will probably get love from his social-media army and also older viewers who find him endearing. The problem is that the average show viewer won’t know who he is (you have to remember that this show skews very old).

4. Tamar Braxton and Val Chmerkovskiy – Just like the previous two stars, this is a placement based mostly on ability more so than audience, since we’re not sure how popular Tamar is with the “DWTS” core base. She does have “The Real” to help promote her, but we feel pretty solid ultimately about the top three.

3. Bindi Irwin and Derek Hough – While we have reservations about how great Bindi will be this season given that this is totally a fish-out-of-water situation for her, people love her late father, and will find her extremely endearing to watch. It helps that she is partnered with someone in Derek who has won more Mirrorball Trophies than anyone else.

2. Alexa PenaVega and Mark Ballas – Alexa is going to have at least the nostalgia vote for some people who remember the “Spy Kids” movies fondly, and we really get the sense that she will be a great dancer this season. Add to this a guy in Mark who we feel is at his creative peak as a choreographer, and she has a tremendous chance to win.

1. Nick Carter and Sharna Burgess – We just don’t think there is any debate here that Nick is the favorite. He feels like the biggest slam-dunk that the show has had in years; the last time we’ve probably been this confident in a winner preseason was all the way back when Donny Osmond was on the show. He’s not only the most famous person in the group, but he has the background to be a great dancer.

As we mentioned, vote below for who you think should win this season? Also, you can check out our spotlights here, and sign up now to get some other TV news on all we cover, sent right to you via our CarterMatt Newsletter. (Photo: ABC.)