Fall TV Showdowns: Chicago Fire vs. SWAT vs. How to Get Away with Murder

Will Chicago Fire withstand a move to Thursday night, or will it become the latest victim of Annalise Keating and her students? There are many questions coming up on what looks to be a far more competitive night on the schedule than it’s been in many years.

Take, for example, last fall, where Pure Genius struggled, The Blacklist lost some momentum, and How to Get Away with Murder started to decline. This time around, the race could be even closer to call since all three shows have some potential.

Chicago Fire – If we were to go solely based on the ratings for this past season, we’d predict that the drama finds a way to stay #1. However, it’s losing This Is Us as a lead-in and is moving to a notoriously tough timeslot for the network after comedies. It should do better than The Blacklist, but it could go from averaging a 1.5 rating in the 18-49 demographic to a 1.2-1.3.

How to Get Away with Murder – The Viola Davis series fell a whopping 30% year-to-year to average a 1.3 this past season. We imagine a smaller drop off this year, but with a performance in the 1.1-1.2 range, it’s fair to estimate that the show will lag slightly behind Chicago Fire. It has more competition this time around, and the central conceit has lost a little buzz.

SWAT – This is the real wild card. The new CBS series has Shemar Moore, and that should help it get off to a decent ratings start. However, there may not be an interest for an action-heavy police drama with all of the other ones on the air. Right now, we project about a 1.1 for season 1, better than recent CBS shows but not necessarily enough for it to be considered a huge hit. It’s hard to see how the show will be able to generate huge publicity beyond its cast.

For now, our prediction is that Chicago Fire will win a close but hard-felt competition between the three shows. Still, this is one of the more unpredictable timeslots of the fall, and it’s a race absolutely worth keeping a close watch on.

Want to see some other analysis of other key timeslots in our Fall TV Showdowns series? Then be sure to visit the link here right now. (Photo: NBC.)