After getting off to a pretty slow start and forcing us to endure weeks of character moments over gameplay, “Survivor Caramoan: Fans vs. Favorites” has really redeemed itself with a pretty fun most-merge game. Last week was the first time since the tribes joined up that we had a predictable boot in Reynold Toepfer, and even with that, we also had the blindside of Andrea Boehlke to make up for it. It’s been a fun season, but this does at the same time cloud the endgame slightly.
We could look at the rankings this week two separate ways, either by who is likely to make it to the end, or who could actually win if they get there. Ultimately, we’re choosing to side with the latter, mostly because we’re not going to celebrate someone for winning $100,000. It’s all about being an instant millionaire, and we want to highlight the people who are playing the right game in order to make that happen.
6. Eddie Fox (last week: 7) – Eddie, unfortunately, has nothing going for him right now at all. He may get the votes of Malcolm and Reynold at the end, but that’s it. He has almost no shot at winning, and more importantly than that, he’s not going to make it there. No one will take him on the off chance that he does pull votes from a bitter jury, and he will probably be gone this week.
5. Erik Reichenbach (4) Erik getting rid of Andrea (or at least helping) was quite possibly his worst move of the entire season. He could have made a sweet final three deal with her and Eddie with that, and then blindsided her a few votes later. Now, he’s on a bit of an island as one of the two physical threats left, and he’s played a Fabio-like game that could get him a few votes in the end. However, we can’t see him getting that far.
4. Sherri Biethman (5) – Let’s make it clear that Sherri will almost surely find her way to the end of the game, but she has about a 0% chance of winning. Phillip seems to be okay with her, but no one else in the game is a Sherri fan, unless things are happening that we aren’t seeing. The rock Francesca promised to eat the first week has a better shot.
3. Brenda Lowe (2) – If Brenda makes it to the end, we have to think that the odds of her winning are pretty strong, especially if she gets rid of Cochran. She’s a smart, physical player who can make a great argument that she worked her way to the top despite having no early alliance really to speak of. Her only real problem is going to be getting there, since all of the other players will know she is a big threat in challenges and in the endgame.
2. Dawn Meehan (3) – While Sherri has a 0% chance of winning, we give Dawn maybe a 25% chance. She is a nice woman that people seem to like, but she’s likely to get cornered by a jury who either feels betrayed, or that they coddled her for a long time just so that she could stab them in the back.
1. John Cochran (1) – It is boring to repeatedly have Cochran at the top spot, but he’s playing such a great game that it’s not even close between him and everyone else. He’s dominating strategically right now, and while the previews show that he is in trouble this coming week, we just don’t imagine anyone being more afraid of him at the end of the day than a Brenda or an Erik. The biggest thing he has going for him is that underdog status, and he has a good friend in the game still in Dawn.
Who do you have at the front of the pack this week? Be sure to share below, and you can watch the aforementioned preview for Wednesday night’s episode here.