NBC’s ‘Revolution’ ratings preview: How will J.J. Abrams’ new series fare?

If you want to go back and what we actually think of the pilot episode of “Revolution” airing Monday night on NBC, all you have to do is visit the story here. On this particular occasion, we are focusing a little bit more so on the show’s actual ratings.

First things first, we will start thins off by saying that there is nothing that we want more than to see a high-concept drama do well. We love the idea of having creativity in network television, where not every success hour-long show has to be about police or doctors or lawyers. “Revolution” brings us a central mystery (who shut of the power?), a variety of characters that could appeal to some families with older children, and also the prestige of J.J. Abrams mixed with “Supernatural” creator Eric Kripke.

So how will all of this actually translate into numbers? That is what we are unsure about. These sort of series to tend to premiere to high numbers, and they really need to in some ways given how quickly they tend to drop off in the weeks that follow since inevitably, not every person who watches is going to love. NBC did do a couple of smart things with this show straight out of the gate, though, that should help it get off to a great start:

1. In airing it after “The Voice” at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, “Revolution” has the best lead-in on the network and is also capable of bringing in some of its own viewers.

2. In premiering the show Monday, it has a week’s jump on two other shows in “Castle” and “Hawaii Five-0” that have a strong male following. If people like this show enough, they could be persuaded to watch it live and record one of the others.

So what’s our ultimate prediction for the first episode? We’re going somewhere in the range of 10.1 million viewers and a 3.3 rating in the 18-49 demographic, which is about 23% lower than “Once Upon a Time” last year. We don’t know if “Revolution” has the same sort of buzz, but having the timeslot to itself plus the aggressive marketing push should help it stay afloat. As for its season 2 chances, we’ll say that it is a sure thing if it stays above a 2.5 all season. (Remember, 18-49 ratings are what really matters. Ask “Harry’s Law,” which is gone despite having good total viewers.) It will only really be in major danger of getting the ax, meanwhile, if it starts to drop lower than a 2.0.

Do you think “Revolution” is going to be the “Lost” for NBC, or just another high-concept failure like “The Event” or “FlashForward”? We want to hear your thoughts below! To check out who from “Grey’s Anatomy” is coming on board the show this season, be sure to read the story here.

Photo: NBC

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