In looking at the ratings for the “One Chicago” franchise on a macro level, we’ve never gotten a clear sense that any of the three shows are in trouble. These series are all widely-promoted, feature a number of crossovers, and all continue to tell interesting, thought-provoking storylines.
For the sake of this particular article, though, we’re looking at things a little bit closer in terms of “Chicago Med.” It’s the lowest-rated of the three shows currently on the air, and it also is the only one dropping by double-digits in terms of percentages from last year. Is there a reason to think that the series could flatline by the time we hit the upfronts in May? In this latest edition of our Ratings Bubble Report series, we’re going to do our best to figure that out.
The good news – The first thing that you have to talk about here is simply network pride. NBC loves the show. They promote the show heavily, and we even visited the set in the fall and saw some of this first-hand. It comes from within their own studio, so there’s less profit-sharing that needs to be done.
Another thing you do have to consider here is year-to-year comparisons in terms of timeslow as opposed to series. While “Chicago Med” may be down more than 20% in live+same day ratings in the 18-49 demographic, last year it aired on Tuesdays alongside “Chicago Fire” and “The Voice” for most of its run. This time around, it doesn’t have the same sort of strength-of-schedule and it’s holding its own. If you compare its ratings to that of “The Blacklist” season 3 (which aired last year in this Thursday timeslot), it’s down so far by less than 10%. That’s a fairly expected year-to-year decline when it comes to network TV.
The trouble spots – We feel like we already laid much of that out: The ratings are down, and in the event that NBC decides to revamp their entire Thursday lineup — or feels like they have too many Chicago shows — it could face some trouble. If “Chicago Justice” turns out to be a big hit, maybe it sticks out as a perceived weak link.
Odds of renewal – Probably around 97%. There’s a minuscule chance that NBC loses their minds, but we had to stretch here to think of reasons why it could be in some danger. We’re sure that the network would like it to be averaging a 1.4 this season instead of a 1.3, but it’s still outperforming “Blindspot,” “Timeless,” and “The Blacklist” so far this season, in addition to some of the stuff happening on Fridays. There’s no reason to put “Chicago Med” out to pasture, and with it only increasing in quality this season, hopefully a ratings uptick will occur by the time we make it to the finale. A well-placed crossover could absolutely help that effort.
Do you want to see “Chicago Med” back for a third season? Vote in the poll below, and head over here to get some other news regarding the next new episode of the show. (Photo: NBC.)